Economic TrendsCQM (Current Quarter Model) Forecast for Japan, US and China
What is CQM Forecast?
We provide current and next quarter economic forecasts for Japan, the U.S., and China, on monthly basis in this page. This forecast is based on the idea and method of Current Quarter Model(CQM) developed by Professor Emeritus L. R. Klein of the University of Pennsylvania. CQM has been applied to forecasting model for each economy. In the Japanese forecasting model, statistical relationships between some 50 monthly economic indicators and main entries of quarterly System of National Accounts have been established. Also this is a pure econometric system without personal data adjustment. The forecast for current and next quarter is revised on a forward rolling basis.
In this homepage, three forecasters will provide forecast every month; Dr. Yuzo Kumasaka of IT Economy (US Economy), Ms. Wendy Mak of the University of Pennsylvania (Chinese Economy), and Dr. Yoshihisa Inada of Konan University (Japanese Economy). Dr. Inada is also leader of Macroeconomic Analysis Project of KISER.
[as of May 14, 2008]
| Q1/2008 Actual/ Forecast |
Q2/2008 Forecast |
Q3/2008 Forecast |
|
|---|---|---|---|
JAPAN |
2.6% (2.0%) |
1.5% (1.9%) |
1.6% |
US |
0.6% | 0.5% (1.2%) |
-0.3% |
CHINA |
10.6% | 11.1% (11.0%) |
11.2% |
Note;
- Japan;
- Expenditure side model forecast. Changes from previous quarter, annually adjusted.
- US;
- Average of expenditure side model and income side model forecast. Changes from previous quarter, annually adjusted.
- China;
- Changes from the same quarter of previous year. Q1=Jan-Mar, Q2=Jan-Jun, Q3=Jan-Sep, Q4=Jan-Dec