What is CQM Forecast?

We provide current and next quarter economic forecasts for Japan, the U.S. on monthly basis in this page. This forecast is based on the idea and method of Current Quarter Model(CQM) developed by Professor Emeritus L. R. Klein of the University of Pennsylvania. CQM has been applied to forecasting model for each economy. In the Japanese forecasting model, statistical relationships between some 50 monthly economic indicators and main entries of quarterly System of National Accounts have been established. Also this is a pure econometric system without personal data adjustment. The forecast for current and next quarter is revised on a forward rolling basis. In this homepage, three forecasters will provide forecast every month; Dr. Yuzo Kumasaka of IT Economy (US Economy), and Dr. Yoshihisa Inada of Konan University (Japanese Economy). Dr. Inada is also leader of Macroeconomic Analysis Project of APIR.

as of January 16 , 2012

	2011 Q3 Actual	2011 Q4 Forecast	2012 Q1 Forecast
Japan	+5.6%	-1.9%	+2.4%
US	+1.8%	+3.9%	-0.2%
China